the most likely final according to projections

As the Champions League progresses, the scenarios begin to take shape. Certain trends are already emerging concerning the probabilities of the different possible posters in the final.

With the quarter-final posters set, today, the final which stands out most often in the projections relayed by Marca is a duel between Arsenal and Bayern Munich. This scenario has almost 18% chance, which makes it, by far, the most statistically expected poster among all the possible combinations.

7% for a Clasico

Behind, other posters are held in a pocket handkerchief. A Real Madrid – FC Barcelona appears in particular to be a credible option, with a little more than 7% probability. A poster which would inevitably cause a lot of talk, but which is still far from being the majority.

Also, the hypothesis of a new Madrid derby in the final remains very weak. A Real-Atletico does not exceed the 2% chance in the projections. Concretely, this means that such a scenario would only happen twice if the competition was played 100 times identically.

In detail, Real Madrid has a little more than 12% chance of reaching the final, while Atlético is behind, below 5%. The gap largely explains why a clash between the two clubs in the final remains so unlikely.

But be careful, because Real Madrid are a master at making predictions lie in recent years, with several titles won without being announced favorites. Atlético, for its part, had already surprised by reaching two finals against its neighbor.

At the other extreme, some posters seem almost improbable. This is the case for a final between Liverpool and Sporting Portugal, estimated at only 0.91%. A very unexpected scenario, which would require a perfect run from both clubs and several big surprises along the way.