Welcome back to The Athletic’s title-race tracker, where our data and tactics writers analyse the key trends behind the two-horse race for the Premier League crown between Arsenal and Manchester City.
Pep Guardiola’s side came out on top when the pair faced off against each other at the Etihad Stadium last weekend, but victory in such a titanic battle does not guarantee glory by the end of the season. With five games remaining following City’s subsequent win over Burnley on Wednesday, it is now a simple sprint to the finish line, with both teams locked on the same points and an identical goal difference.
With the help of Opta’s supercomputer, The Athletic looks to answer the impossible question: who will make it over the line and become champions?
What has changed since the last gameweek?
There has been a notable shift at the top of the table.
Arsenal had been the Premier League’s leaders for 209 days, but City’s victory over Mikel Arteta’s side — followed by a 1-0 win against Burnley — saw them leapfrog their way to top spot on Wednesday evening.
That jump was thanks to a very specific statistic. After 33 games, there is nothing to choose between City and Arsenal in points (70) or goal difference (+37), meaning City have edged their way to the top on goals scored — bagging 66 goals compared to Arsenal’s 63.
It remains to be seen how much Sunday’s loss will have halted Arsenal’s momentum in the final weeks of the season. As shown in The Athletic’s match dashboard below, City might have had more of the ball, but Arsenal created some excellent opportunities with an attack-minded approach at the Etihad.
For Arsenal fans, that approach should be the blueprint for the remaining five games.
Arsenal have the opportunity to regain top spot at home to Newcastle today (kick-off 5.30pm UK/12.30pm ET), returning the psychological pressure back to Manchester City, who are in FA Cup action this weekend.
Might the physical toil of the other competitions play a part in the final destination of the league title? City will have one eye on clinching the FA Cup trophy for the third time in eight years, while Arsenal’s Champions League semi-final clashes with Atletico Madrid will take plenty out of them physically and mentally.
Do not take your eyes off this one. It looks set to go down to the wire.
Who is looking stronger?
Having wrestled the title momentum away from Arsenal this week, City are the obvious answer here, but there are reasons for optimism in north London. The margins in that 2-1 City defeat were razor-thin, whatever any more reactionary narratives might say.
The xG step chart below bears this out. Arsenal’s biggest spike came in the 59th minute when Kai Havertz, slipped through by Martin Odegaard, fired straight into Gianluigi Donnarumma’s hulking frame from just outside the six-yard box. Eberechi Eze hit the post moments later after some dazzling footwork, before Erling Haaland struck the decisive goal for City five minutes later.
The game swung on these knife-edge moments, but the actual performance levels were similar from both teams.
The defeat was a significant body blow to Arsenal’s aspirations, but City’s 1-0 victory over Burnley can strangely be viewed in a positive light for them. Their fans will have cast a nervous glance at the goal difference column after City raced into the lead at Turf Moor through Erling Haaland after five minutes. City were surprisingly wasteful, though, failing to pull clear despite racking up 3.4 xG, their highest total of the season.
With a reasonable chance that both sides win all their remaining games, the size of each victory matters. Over the course of the season, Arsenal hold the edge in the underlying numbers, with an expected goal difference of 0.86 per game to City’s 0.73. That gap almost vanishes when we look at a more recent window, with the chart below showing Arsenal only fractionally ahead since the turn of the year.
There is a feeling that City have a higher attacking ceiling than Arsenal’s more functional forward line, but defensive strength is equally important in the goal-difference stakes, and Arsenal’s imposing back four has been comfortably stronger all season.
Who has the tougher upcoming schedule?
Arsenal have the kinder run-in of the two, at least on paper.
In fact, only Leeds United have an easier end to the season among all Premier League teams, which should give Arsenal heart that they can rack up the points and, crucially, the goals required in what remains of the season.
This afternoon’s clash with Newcastle is one of three home games of their final five, with Fulham and Burnley being the remaining pair to take place at the Emirates Stadium.
A possible banana skin could be a trip across London to face West Ham. They have the eighth-best points-per-game rate in the league since the turn of the year, with Nuno Espirito Santo inspiring an uptick in form as his team fights for their Premier League lives.
Arsenal’s final-day trip to Selhurst Park might sound tricky, but if Crystal Palace progress to the final of the Conference League, this Premier League finale will come three days before they play in Leipzig.
City also play Palace in their rescheduled game in hand, but there are tricky away days to Bournemouth and Everton on the horizon — with both sides still in the mix for European qualification.
Rounding out the season by hosting fourth-placed Aston Villa is hardly the easiest fixture, but there is a decent chance that Villa will have already achieved their objective of qualifying for the Champions League by then, leaving the game with little riding on it beyond pride for Unai Emery’s side.
The ominous factor for Arsenal to consider is that City finish seasons strongly. They do so in title-winning seasons, but they also readdressed the balance excellently in 2024-25 after their form dropped off a cliff in the winter months.
Do not expect Guardiola’s side to give you an inch. A convincing run of form to end the campaign is what they do.
What does the supercomputer say?
At the start of the month, Opta’s supercomputer considered this all but a coronation for Arsenal, assigning them a 97 per cent chance of ending their 22-year title drought. This has since plummeted to 65.4 per cent, reflecting the dramatic twists of recent weeks.
Many will feel this probability still flatters Arteta’s side, especially after City went top on Wednesday, but as discussed, Arsenal hold the edge in fixture difficulty.
Opta’s model simulates games using the relative statistical strength between sides. It does not account for the overwhelming pressure that can build as the title race’s finish line comes into view.
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