PSG – Bayern, Atlético – Arsenal: Football Manager predicts the Champions League semi-finals

As the Champions League semi-finals begin this Tuesday evening, we asked Football Manager to simulate the clashes between PSG and Bayern Munich, and Atlético Madrid against Arsenal.

The final sprint of the 2025/26 Champions League is now. In the last four of the competition are present on one side Bayern Munich and PSG: the German giant is aiming for a first European coronation in six years, while the reigning European champion wishes to achieve an extremely rare back to back in the competition.

In the other part of the table, two big clubs, which have never lifted the big-eared cup in their history: Arsenal and Atlético de Madrid. The one and only C1 final contested by the Gunners dates back to 2006, the Colchoneros reached this last step for the last time in 2016. 20 years of waiting for one, 10 years for the other: one of the two teams will have the opportunity to return to this final match of the competition, and to hope to be crowned for the first time.

But first, it is the semi-finals of the competition that we must approach. This Tuesday evening, the first round between PSG and Bayern Munich will take place at the Parc des Princes, Atlético de Madrid will host Arsenal on Wednesday. The return matches will take place the following week: the days of the matches will be reversed.

For its part, the video game Football Manager simulated these two shocks for us, 100 times for each of them. Number of victories, results and most frequent scorers, these simulations revealed many surprises.

The simulation of PSG – Bayern Munich by Football Manager

Qualification (out of 100 simulations)

Name of matches	Qualification PSG	Qualification Bayern Munich
100	58	42

Most frequent scores (out of 100 simulations)

Scores	Name
2-1 PSG	22 times
2-2	18 times
1-1	15 times
2-1 Bayern Munich	14 times
3-2 PSG	9 times

Most frequent scorers (over 100 simulations)

Scorers	Number of goals
Harry Kane	48
Ousmane Dembélé	42
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia	38
Jamal Musiala	29
Bradley Barcola	21
Désiré Doué	21
Warren Zaire-Emery	18

PSG would win here thanks to offensive fluidity, and transitions as effective as ever. The contribution of the Parc des Princes during the first leg would also weigh in the balance. On the other hand, the matches won by Bayern Munich were thanks in particular to a gala Harry Kane, but also to the errors made by the Parisian defense. In summary, the Parisians win in open matches, the Bavarians in closed matches.

The simulation of Atlético Madrid – Arsenal on Football Manager

Qualification (out of 100 simulations)

Name of matches	Qualification Atlético de Madrid	Qualification Arsenal
100	37	63

Most frequent scores (out of 100 simulations)

Scores	Name
1-0 Atlético de Madrid	24 times
2-0 Arsenal	21 times
1-1	17 times
2-1 Arsenal	16 times
0-0	11 times

Most frequent scorers (over 100 simulations)

Scorers	Number of goals
Bukayo Saka	44
Antoine Griezmann	38
Viktor Gyökeres	31
Gabriel Martinelli	26
Julian Alvarez	22
Martin Odegaard	18

Here, Arsenal dominates thanks to its important midfield, and its ability to impose the tempo of a match. More offensive solutions are also available to the Gunners. On the other hand, Atlético de Madrid’s qualifications were won following more closed matches (1-0, 0-0, etc.), and thanks to maximum efficiency from Diego Simeone’s men.

The key lies in this double confrontation on the advantage that the Londoners have of receiving at the Emirates Stadium in the return match. Often, the Colchoneros win in the first leg, before William Saliba’s teammates reverse the trend on their lawn in the return.

A PSG – Arsenal final at 36%

In conclusion following these Football Manager simulations, the match that comes up most often in the Champions League final is PSG – Arsenal, at 36%. A clash between Bayern Munich and the Gunners comes to 27%, it would be 22 for a confrontation between Paris and Atlético de Madrid. Finally, a final between Munich and Colchoneros only happened 15% of the time.