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Sweden are among the least deserving World Cup qualifiers this century – but they could still be a force


Sweden’s most important goal in their qualification for the World Cup, you might argue, came from a footballer who didn’t actually score in their World Cup qualification campaign — and who hasn’t played a minute of football in 2026.

Alexander Isak controlled the ball with his right foot, shifted it onto his left, and then blasted home to secure a 2-1 victory over Slovakia.

This was in November 2024. In the Nations League. The third tier.

At the time, no one knew how much the goal meant. Sweden were simply happy to top their Nations League group. Indeed, amid the side drawing two of their qualification matches and losing the other four, winger Anthony Elanga admitted he had no idea that success in the previous year’s Nations League C meant Sweden would, despite that 0% qualification win rate, progress into the World Cup playoffs.

You can’t blame him.

Sweden finished last in their qualification group (behind Switzerland, Kosovo and Slovenia) and are essentially fortunate that they also finished bottom of their Nations League B group in 2022 (behind Serbia, Norway and Slovenia (again)), which meant relegation and the chance to top their Nations League C group in 2024 ahead of Slovakia, Estonia and Azerbaijan, to book their place in these playoffs.

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Then came a double dose of fortune in the playoffs. Sweden were unseeded for the semi-final, and therefore would face an away match. But since they were drawn against Ukraine, who are not currently able to play at home, the one-off contest was held at a neutral venue. There were more Swedes than Ukrainians in the stands in Valencia on Thursday, and Sweden won comfortably, 3-1. They were also fortunate that the winner of that match was drawn to play at home in the ‘final’.

So it was Sweden against Poland in Stockholm. Poland are a better side on paper, and played better football on the night. But Sweden blocked shots, cleared ball off the line, narrowly avoided mad own goals and eventually progressed, thanks to a outstanding drive from Elanga, a header at a set-piece from defender Gustav Lagerbielke, and then an almost comical late pinball winner from Viktor Gyokeres.

All this adds up to the strangest, and possibly least deserved, World Cup qualification this century — at least from the UEFA confederation. But by June, their qualification record will be a distant memory.

Indeed, the qualifying group itself already feels a long time ago, in part due to a change in manager. As a renowned Danish international, Jon Dahl Tomasson had an uphill task winning the affection of Swedes. Results were terrible and Tomasson was dismissed. The identity of his replacement, Graham Potter, was a surprise. But the former Swansea, Brighton, Chelsea and West Ham manager made his name by taking Swedish minnows Ostersund into European football, recording a win over Arsenal. His fondness for Sweden tempted him back, seemingly for a short-term job, and then, even before these playoffs, he signed a four-year contract up to World Cup 2030, despite winning neither of his first two friendlies in charge.

Isak celebrates that goal against Slovakia (Photo: Michael Campanella/Getty Images)

His XI this week was a patched-up side. Isak has been out since breaking his leg shortly before Christmas. Playmaker Dejan Kulusevski, the side’s captain, hasn’t played all season. The likes of goalkeeper Viktor Johnsson and right-back Emil Krafth were also unavailable, while Atalanta defender Isak Hien limped off in the first half against Ukraine.

The ramshackle team included 36-year-old goalkeeper Kristoffer Nordfeldt, who has spent 15 years as a back-up for the national team, but who impressed under Potter at Swansea back in 2018-19. He made two crucial saves against Poland, and his huge kicks and throws put Sweden on the attack in both games.

Gyokeres, though, was Sweden’s trump card. He hasn’t always convinced at Arsenal this season, but he is nevertheless the top goalscorer for the leaders of the strongest league in world football. Dominating the attack rather than playing second fiddle to Isak, he scored an excellent hattrick in the 3-1 win over Ukraine, constantly driving in behind. He was largely subdued against Poland, popped up with the crucial goal, to spark incredible scenes from around the Strawberry Arena from fans who had almost given up on World Cup qualification.

And for all their struggles, Sweden could be a serious force at the World Cup, particularly if they have their best two players back. There’s a reason Isak is the third-most expensive player in football history. Kulusevski, at the start of last season, was recording attacking numbers only bettered in the Premier League by Mohamed Salah. Yasin Ayari and Lucas Bergvall at potentially top-class central midfielders. Swedes consider this the best generation they’ve produced for a long time, which underlines how extraordinary it is that they have relied on the back door for qualification. Potter, a rare manager with a master’s degree in leadership and emotional intelligence, seems to have brought the squad together after the dark days under Tomasson.

The last time North America hosted a World Cup, in 1994, Sweden finished third. This time they couldn’t even finish third in their qualification group. But somehow, Sweden will face Tunisia in Guadeloupe, the Netherlands in Houston, and Japan in Dallas. Anything beyond that will be a bonus — but then, all things considered, even being in the group stage feels like a bonus.

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