Arsenal favorite for the title, a race for the Champions League already over and a bottom of the table with still some suspense. Opta’s AI predictions ahead of the end-of-season Premier League sprint.
There are seven days left to go for England and the Opta AI rankings are starting to take shape. The Institute of Sports Statistics updates its ranking every week to establish probabilities, and for the moment, Arsenal are widely favored (97.29%) to win their first league title in more than 20 years.
Behind, Manchester City is also almost guaranteed to finish in the top two of the Premier League. With a game behind and six points ahead of 3rd, the Citizens do not even have a 5% chance of leaving the top 2 according to Opta. On the other hand, the European places are not all played, even if those in the Champions League seem already taken by Manchester United and Aston Villa. It remains to be seen who from Liverpool (32.72%) or Chelsea (23.82%) will manage to take the 5th place, qualifying for the Europa League, even if Brentford and Everton also retain a tiny chance of clinching Europe.
An unchanged bottom of the table
Currently, Tottenham is saving itself at the last minute from a decline and a purely catastrophic season. With just one small point ahead of West Ham, 18th and first relegated, Roberto De Zerbi’s men would remain in this position according to Opta. But beaten (0-3) at home by Nottingham Forest, a direct competitor for maintenance, they will have to recover and win as many points as possible.
With only four points difference between Leeds, 15th, and West Ham, 18th, everything remains playable at the bottom of the table. Even if according to Opta, Leeds and Nottingham have less than a 10% chance of finishing in a relegation position at the end of the season.
Premier League ranking predicted by Opta AI after 31 days
|
Predicted final ranking |
Probability |
|---|---|
|
1. Arsenal |
97,29% |
|
2. Manchester City (-1 match) |
92,34% |
|
3. Manchester United |
53,78% |
|
4. Aston Villa |
41,98% |
|
5. Liverpool |
32,72% |
|
6. Chelsea |
27,23% |
|
7. Brentford |
19,31% |
|
8. Everton |
17,28% |
|
9. Brighton & Hove Albion |
16,08% |
|
10. Fulham |
14,19% |
|
11. Sunderland |
15,47% |
|
12. Newcastle |
15,86% |
|
13. Bournemouth |
17,62% |
|
14. Crystal Palace (-1 match) |
35,69% |
|
15. Leeds |
36,85% |
|
16. Nottingham Forest |
34,03% |
|
17. Tottenham Hotspur |
34,96% |
|
18. West Ham |
55,76% |
|
19. Burnley |
55,29% |
|
20. Wolverhampton |
57,27% |
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