Marca produced a statistical model equivalent to the Elo ranking, which made it possible to determine who would qualify for the semi-finals of the Champions League. PSG, FC Barcelona and Real Madrid are concerned.
Tomorrow the quarter-finals of the Champions League will begin, with Sporting-Arsenal and especially Real Madrid-Bayern Munich, followed the next day by PSG-Liverpool and FC Barcelona-Atlético. Very high level meetings inevitably undecided, which led Marca to create a statistical model based on the Elo ranking, used in chess. The sports daily awarded points to each team based solely on their season results. The prize list and history do not come into play in this type of ranking.
PSG and FC Barcelona qualified, not Real Madrid
This statistical model estimates that PSG has a 54% chance of qualifying at the expense of Liverpool. Which, given the season of both teams, is indeed the trend. But it is the most “balanced” confrontation of the model proposed by Marca. On the other hand, Real Madrid should fall by the wayside, with Bayern having 55.5% to pass. FC Barcelona should overcome the Atlético obstacle (62.1% chance), which it has already beaten three times in four matches since the start of the season. Finally, Arsenal would have a 73.1% chance of defeating Sporting.
These figures do not bring any fundamental surprise but confirm that Real Madrid will have difficulty overcoming the Bavarian obstacle. And that PSG will have to show themselves at their best to eliminate the Reds, who have certainly been disappointing this season but are still competitive.
PSG’s end-of-season schedule
07/04: PSG-Liverpool (Champions League quarter-final first leg)
04/14: Liverpool-PSG (Champions League quarter-final second leg)
04/19: PSG-Lyon (30th day of Ligue 1)
22/04: PSG-Nantes (26th day of Ligue 1)
26/04: Angers-PSG (31st day of Ligue 1)
28/04: Champions League semi-final first leg
03/05: PSG-Lorient (32nd day of Ligue 1)
05/05: Champions League semi-final second leg
09/05: PSG-Brest (33rd day of Ligue 1)
13/05: Lens-PSG (29th day of Ligue 1)
05/16: Paris FC-PSG (34th day of Ligue 1)
30/05: Champions League Final
Leave a Reply