It’s the halfway stage of the Champions League quarter-finals, which is the perfect time to pause for breath to reflect.
In football parlance, the job is only ‘half done’ for Bayern Munich, Paris Saint-Germain, Arsenal and Atletico Madrid, all of whom go into the second leg next week with a lead.
As for Real Madrid, Liverpool, Sporting CP and Barcelona, they ‘have it all to do’ to reach the last four.
Here, The Athletic reflects on the story of the first leg in all of those ties, including what went wrong and what went right for each team, and also predicts the clubs most likely to be celebrating reaching the Champions League semi-finals next week.
Bayern Munich v Real Madrid (Bayern lead 2-1 from first leg)
Forty shots in 90 minutes, twenty for each team. Tuesday night’s game at the Bernabeu between two European heavyweights was a lot of fun to watch, and there’s no reason to suspect that the second leg will be any different.
Statistically, Bayern possess the best front three in Europe. Two of them – Harry Kane and Luis Diaz – scored against Madrid. As for the third member of that formidable trio, he was the outstanding player on the pitch. Michael Olise tormented Alvaro Carreras, the Madrid left-back.
The fact that Bayern could easily have scored three or four in Madrid will be a source of frustration for the German side, but it should also encourage them ahead of the second leg.
(Angel Martinez/Getty Images)
Loose in possession and weak defensively, in particular in the full-back positions (Diaz’s opening goal came after he ran in behind Trent Alexander-Arnold, and Carreras lost the ball in the lead up to the second), Madrid were opened up time and again by Bayern.
Significantly, Madrid will also be without the suspended Aurelien Tchouameni, their holding midfielder, for the game in Bavaria. In short, it’s hard to see Alvaro Arbeloa’s side keeping a clean sheet at the Allianz Arena. Kane, Diaz and Olise have scored 88 goals between them this season – silly numbers.
All over, then?
Not quite. This, after all, is Real Madrid, the 15-time winners of the competition and a club that specialises in comebacks. That narrative will be heard over and again in Madrid ahead of the second leg, partly to inspire their own players but also to sow seeds of doubt into Bayern minds. A key difference this time, though, is that Madrid have lost the first leg at home and that rarely leads to a happy ending.
There’s a sense that Kylian Mbappe, the top scorer in the Champions League this season, will need to produce something truly special if Madrid are to triumph in Germany. But even that may not be enough against a top Bayern team.
Winner: Bayern. Their firepower will be too much for Madrid.
When is the second leg? Wednesday April 15, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
Arsenal v Sporting CP (Arsenal lead 1-0 from first leg)
Two passages of play stand out from the first leg. The first was a wonderful outside of the boot pass from Ousmane Diomande that released Maximiliano Araujo behind Ben White and led to David Raya making an exceptional save. The second was Kai Havertz’s immaculate first touch, from Gabriel Martinelli’s pass, prior to coolly dispatching the winner in stoppage-time. Underrated, that.
The 85 minutes in between were not exactly edge-of-the-seat stuff. In fact, the first half saw Arsenal and Sporting register just nine touches in the opposition box combined. It was a hard watch (no, I’m not filing it in the folder marked ‘Tactically fascinating’).
In many ways, though, it was the perfect away performance from Arsenal. Resilient and disciplined without the ball, Mikel Arteta’s team ended Sporting’s run of 17 successive victories at home and also delivered a killer blow with that late Havertz goal, leaving the Portuguese side with a huge task in the second leg. A huge task because Arsenal have the best defensive record in the Champions League this season and have trailed for less than 45 minutes in the entire campaign.
(PATRICIA DE MELO MOREIRA / AFP via Getty Images)
The second leg has Arsenal-Chelsea Carabao Cup semi-final second leg vibes about it. Arsenal have no need to go chasing a goal. Instead, the onus is on Sporting, who have won only once away in the Champions League this season, to break Arsenal down, and ideally without conceding. Good luck with that.
Winner: Arsenal. Havertz’s goal puts them in a position of strength.
When is the second leg? Wednesday April 15, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
Liverpool v Paris Saint-Germain (PSG lead 2-0 from first leg)
The scoreline in the first leg suggests that it was a fairly tight game. In reality, Liverpool were comprehensively outplayed and got off lightly. PSG could – and should – have scored four or five. Liverpool, in contrast, failed to register a single shot on target.
That should help to manage expectations ahead of the second leg. Anfield is a special place on European nights and has witnessed some famous comebacks in the past, but it’s difficult to see a scenario where Liverpool turn this quarter-final around, bearing in mind the way they have been playing for much of the season and the calibre of the opposition.
PSG were toying with Liverpool at times in the first leg, guilty of overcomplicating some openings and wastefully snatching at others. Either way, the chances kept coming right up until the final whistle. Ousmane Dembele thudded a shot against the woodwork in the 88th minute, and Ibrahima Konate was fortunate to get away with a push in the penalty area moments later.
(Franco Arland/Getty Images)
It’s a safe bet that Arne Slot won’t set his team up with a five-man defence at Anfield, in the same way that the Liverpool head coach did in Paris in the first leg to try to frustrate PSG. Liverpool will need to open up to chase down a two-goal lead but not in a way that leaves space for Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Dembele and Desire Doue to exploit.
There’s a conundrum for Slot to solve, and that’s before we get to who on earth he trusts to form the attack. Slot changed half the outfield players against PSG and Mohamed Salah still didn’t get off the bench.
At least Liverpool are still in the game.
Winner: PSG to win at Anfield and to go through with a comfortable aggregate victory.
When is the second leg? Tuesday April 14, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
Atletico Madrid v Barcelona (Atletico lead 2-0 from first leg)
The first leg turned into a seminal night for Atletico Madrid and their manager Diego Simeone. A first win at the Camp Nou for 20 years – and by two clear goals – puts them in a commanding position.
They were aided by a combination of a straight red card for Pau Cubarsi (after VAR intervention) and the brilliance of Julian Alvarez, who scored from the free-kick that followed the Barcelona centre-back’s dismissal for a professional foul. It was an outstanding goal from the Argentina international.
(Josep LAGO / AFP via Getty Images)
A second goal, turned home by Alexander Sorloth 20 minutes from time, gives Atletico the sort of breathing space that they could never have imagined beforehand.
Going to the Metropolitano and trying to overturn a two-goal deficit feels like a big ask. But Atletico won’t be taking anything for granted. Barcelona have scored an astonishing 127 goals across all competitions this season, and even with 10 men they continued to carry a threat on Wednesday night. They also beat Atletico 2-1 in Madrid last weekend.
The third meeting between the two clubs in the space of 10 days promises to be fascinating. Atletico, who last reached the Champions League semi-finals in 2017, are not without their frailties. Tottenham Hotspur scored five goals past them in the previous round.
Can Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski, Marcus Rashford and Dani Olmo turn it on next week?
Winner: Atletico. Barcelona may well win in Madrid, but not by two clear goals.
When is the second leg? Tuesday April 14, 8pm GMT (3pm ET)
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