why Rangers and Shakhtar can rub their hands after quarters

The composition of the last four of the Champions League (PSG, Bayern Munich, Atlético, Arsenal) guarantees 99.7% the allocation of direct qualification for the next edition of the C1 to the champion of a “small” championship. Which will suit Rangers or Shakhtar Donetsk.

The last four of the Champions League offers a great opportunity to teams from “small” championships. Since Wednesday evening, the posters for the final four of the most prestigious club competition have been known. While PSG will challenge Bayern Munich, the other match will pit Arsenal against Atlético de Madrid. And this changes the situation for the allocation of qualifying places for the next edition.

According to data from the specialized account Football Meets Data, PSG, Bayern and Arsenal are guaranteed to qualify for the 2026-2027 edition directly thanks to their place in the championship. For Atlético de Madrid, this is just a formality with a 99.7% chance of finishing in the top 4 of La Liga (and therefore qualifying).

Concretely, it is almost established that the winner of this 2025-2026 edition will already qualify for the next campaign thanks to their championship. This will free up the place granted to the winner of the competition.

To know who will recover this place, we will have to look at the winners of the so-called “minor” domestic championships. The rule is simple: the ticket will go to the champion team in its country which is highest ranked in the UEFA rankings.

In this little game, Rangers and Shakhtar Donetsk are best placed to date. Olympiacos have the best UEFA coefficient but only have a 16% chance of becoming Greek champions, which eliminates them from the race for now. Rangers, for their part, have the second best UEFA coefficient and have a 48% chance of being Scottish champions. If the Glasgow club fails to win the domestic title, Shakhtar is in ambush.